EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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Dear Fellow Investors,
From Beginner’s Luck to Winner’s Curse?
Consider this: If 1000 monkeys had constructed portfolios of Indian stocks in the calendar year 2021, how many of those 1000 portfolios would have beaten the BSE 500 index after 3 years?
The surprising answer: ALMOST ALL OF THEM (997 of 1000).
No, these aren’t specially gifted/ trained primates; they’re random monkeys with random portfolios. We conducted a simulation with 1000 random portfolios. Each portfolio picked 100 equal weighted stocks at random from the BSE 500 universe in calendar year 2021. To remove starting period bias, we excluded period from May 2020 to December 2020 (marked by a sharp recovery from Covid-19 lows). Additionally, we assumed that stocks were added on a monthly basis throughout calendar year 2021. Then, on March 31, 2024, we compared the performance of these 1000 portfolios with that of the BSE 500 index, assuming a similar monthly purchases of the index. Remarkably, almost all monkey portfolios outperformed BSE 500’s 15% annualised returns from 2021 to March 2024, recording a median return of 22% p.a.
The secret behind this superlative performance lies in the starting point and market’s direction during the study period. Stocks have been on a relentless ascent since Covid-19 lows in May 2020. Many small and midcap BSE 500 stocks with less than 1% weight in the index have surged 3x to 12x. An equally weighted portfolio of random 100 stocks would allocate 1% weight to these stocks. Just a few such stocks are sufficient to improve the portfolio performance materially. Moreover, hardly any stock experienced significant declines to drag down the overall performance. If these portfolios were allowed to include micro caps, IPOs and SME IPO stocks (currently excluded) or reduce the number of stocks from 100 to say 50 or even 30, their performance would have risen further (100% outperformance; over 22% median return).
This outcome – call it beginner’s luck – mirrors the experience of many new investors who entered equity markets post Covid-19. Consistently beating the index is challenging even for seasoned investors. So, after outperforming the index over 3 years, many novice investors may start to believe that they possess a Midas touch for stock picking. However, in reality, the past 3 years’ success is largely attributable to luck. Worryingly, nothing sets up someone for financial and/or emotional ruin more than luck mistaken as skill and/ or an imprudent approach rewarded handsomely. Emboldened by their riches, many investors will raise their bets (trade in options, dabble in stocks of questionable companies etc.) precisely at the wrong time, and fall victim to the winner’s curse.
We also conducted a reality check: we made those 1000 monkeys repeat the same exercise in calendar year 2018. How many of them would have beaten the BSE 500 by June 2020? Only 200 out of 1000, with a median return of -6%. The reason? The markets were in decline from 2018 to June 2020.
Liquidity can propel stock prices to any level in the short term. However, fundamentals and valuations ultimately serve as anchors. Until then, ironically, a thoughtful investing approach may seem foolish, while a foolish investing approach may appear thoughtful. It’s therefore difficult to correctly evaluate performance in a uni-directionally rising market. The true test of investment skill lies in a falling market. Correct evaluation period should encompass a full market cycle, not just one phase as is the case with last three years. A full cycle is when margins and multiples both mean revert. A strong performance across full cycle results from being mindful of risks in a rising market and maintaining the price and quality discipline consistently.
A. PERFORMANCE
A1. Statutory PMS Performance Disclosure
| Portfolio | FY24 | FY23 | FY22 | FY 21 | FY 20* | Since Inception* | Outper-formance | Cash Bal. |
| CED Long Term Focused Value (PMS) | 29.2% | -4.3% | 14.9% | 48.5% | -9.5% | 14.8% | 26.1% | |
| S&P BSE 500 TRI (includes dividends) | 40.2% | -0.9% | 22.3% | 78.6% | -23.4% | 19.7% | -4.9% | NIL |
| *From Jul 24, 2019; Since inception performance is annualised; Note: As required by SEBI, the returns are calculated on time weighted average (NAV) basis. The returns are NET OF ALL EXPENSES AND FEES. The returns pertain to ENTIRE portfolio of our one and only strategy. Individual investor returns may vary from above owing to different investment dates. Annual returns are audited but not verified by SEBI. W.e.f. April 01, 2023 SEBI requires use of any one from Nifty50, BSE500 or MSEI SX40 as a benchmark. We have chosen BSE500 as our benchmark as it best captures our multi-cap stance. | ||||||||
Discipline or Delusion?
Our commitment to ‘protection first, returns later’ remains the guiding light behind our investment decision. This means we aim to acquire assets at prices below their conservatively assessed values. However, in today’s market, this criterion is often not met. As a result, our prudent course of action remains one of patience and continued study.
We understand the frustration that comes with our cautious approach, especially as it has led to underperformance compared to broader market indices like the BSE 500, which have surged due to rally in midcap and smallcap stocks. It is useful to question whether our stance reflects discipline or delusion, particularly when markets continue to rise, defying any caution.
While short-term market movements can be unpredictable, they cannot defy the fundamental principles of valuation. The mathematics of valuations dictate that the present value of future free cash flows, not current prices, should serve as the anchor for asset prices. Just as trees cannot grow infinitely towards the sky, stock prices cannot indefinitely surpass their intrinsic values. Eventually, the gravity of fundamental factors realigns stock prices with their true worth.
It’s crucial to recognise that enduring the disciplinary pain during lofty markets is precisely what safeguards and fortifies longer term investment returns. Investing is a marathon and tallying scores after every lap is of no use if we fail to complete the marathon. Stance: Cautious.
A2. Underlying business performance
| Past Twelve Months | Earnings per unit (EPU)2 | FY 2024 EPU (expected) |
| Dec 2023 | 8.01 | 7.5-8.53 |
| Sep 2023 (Previous Quarter) | 8.6 | 8.0-9.03 |
| Dec 2022 (Previous Year) | 5.5 | |
| Annual Change | 45% | |
| CAGR since inception (Jun 2019) | 12% | |
| 1 Last four quarters ending Dec 2023. Results of Mar quarter are declared by May only. 2 EPU = Total normalised earnings accruing to the aggregate portfolio divided by units outstanding. 3 Please note: the forward earnings per unit (EPU) are conservative estimates of our expectation of future earnings of underlying companies. In past we have been wrong – often by wide margin – in our estimates and there is a risk that we are wrong about the forward EPU reported to you above. | ||
Trailing Earnings: Trailing twelve months Earnings Per Unit (EPU) of underlying companies, grew by 45% (including effects of cash equivalents that earn ~6% post tax currently).
1-Yr Forward Earnings: We downgrade the expected earnings per share range for FY24 from 8.0-9.0 to 7.5-8.5. This is because we exited from two positions where the earnings were at cyclical high and lifted base period’s earnings.
A3. Underlying portfolio parameters
| Mar 2024 | Trailing P/E | Forward P/E | Portfolio RoIC | Portfolio Turnover1 |
| CED LTFV (PMS) | 23.8x | 22.5x-25.5x | 30.0%3 | 8.4% |
| BSE 500 | 26.0x2 | – | 16.2%2 | 3.4%2 |
| 1 ‘sale of equity shares’ divided by ‘average portfolio value’ during the year to date period. 2Source: BSE. 3Portfolio Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) is on core equity positions. | ||||
B. DETAILS ON PERFORMANCE
B1. MISTAKES AND LEARNINGS
Music Broadcast (Radio City): You will remember we had initiated an arbitrage position in equity and preference shares of Music Broadcast (aka Radio City) some time ago. From -30% this position broke-even last quarter. We had guided that we will sell the equity end of the position soon. We failed to sell the 2.3% Music Broadcast equity position in time. Music Broadcast equity share price went up by 50% i.e. from 16 to 24 last quarter. We sold just 10% of the position at that price. The price is down to 18. At this price our combined yield to maturity of equity and preference shares is at 7%. We are waiting for government’s decision on TRAI’s recommendations involving lowering of radio license fee and allowing news broadcast for 10min/hour on FM radio. These if accepted, shall support the stock. Nonetheless, it was a mistake to not sell at 24.
B2. MAJOR PORTFOLIO CHANGES
Bought: We further added to a major position in all accounts to take it from 5% to 9% of the portfolio. Since Oct’23, we have increased its weight from 3% to 9% We also added to two other positions in underweight accounts. We also initiated a toe hold position in a new stock. Including this, we now have 4 toehold positions, not scaled up yet. See these long tail of small positions as experiments, where we have cleared off the red flags, but are either waiting for more confidence in our ability to see their future or better price. They say, we should try to position ourselves to get lucky. This is one of the ways. We will either scale them up and share detailed rationale or in absence, exit them fully.
Sold: We fully exited from one minor position giving an internal rate of return (IRR) over 25% p.a.
B4. FLOWS AND SENTIMENTS
Smallcap’s Abhimanyu Moment?
Smallcap mutual fund schemes invest atleast 65% of their funds in companies ranking below 250 by market capitalisation (smallcaps). Most of these companies have low liquidity. Unprecedented flows have led to one way rise in smallcaps creating an illusion of safe asset class with high returns. Entering into smallcaps may have been the easy part for retail investors. Will they be able to timely exit during the next crisis or will they get stuck like Mahabharat’s Abhimanyu ?
As per latest liquidity stress test, top 5 smallcap mutual funds schemes (70% share) will take 22-60 days to liquidate 50% of their smallcap schemes. This is after assuming that liquidity will be 3x of last 90 days average daily trading volume.
This may be an optimistic assumption and therefore an optimistic timeline. The liquidity present in a buoyant market like current one, can vanish during a crash when everyone including mutual funds and other alternative investment vehicles like PMS & AIF look to exit at the same time. Circuit breakers of 10%/ 5%/ 2% will further scare away buyers. The Franklin debt fiasco of 2020 reminds us that when everyone wants to exit no one can exit. A part of smallcap schemes is parked in largecaps and we think that they will be sold first in the event of redemptions from smallcap schemes. Exit in smallcaps may lead to pressure on largecaps too even if they are not as frothy. Everything is connected to everything else!
C. OTHER THOUGHTS
Investing during elections
Government policies and regulations have a material impact on business growth and profitability. Research has shown that business/ capitalism friendly policies add to general national prosperity. Take for instance the 1991 Economic Liberalisation in India. That single decision has altered the trajectory of wealth creation by Indian businesses. Respect for trade, commerce, enterprise and property rights has been a common source of wealth creation across multiple countries including Switzerland, Singapore, America, Japan, and to a limited extent, even China.
It is not surprising that Indian markets are cheering the expectation of the Modi government’s relection in the forthcoming elections. Over last 10 years, the Modi government has spearheaded many notable reforms including GST, reduction of corporate income taxes, speeding up infrastructure spends, fostering digitalisation through JAM – Jandhan, Aadhar and Mobile – trinity and promoting Make in India to name a few.
While the impact of policies on business growth is clear, the near term impact on the markets is less so. Two key challenges are (a) double counting and (b) impact of other factors:
Often, expected election outcomes already get baked into prices. Expecting a further rise when markets have already risen can be a double counting error.
Also, politics is not the only factor that affects markets. Global interest rates (falling interest rates since 2008 to 2022), global economic cycle (Chinese commodity boom in 2003-2007), geo political issues (Kargil war, 9/11, Ukraine-Russia war), technological changes (internet in 2010s and AI currently), demographics etc. all can have multiplicative or countervailing effect on markets.
Here are few examples of how correlation between elections and stock market is messy:
After rising 3x post Economic Liberalisation of July 1991, (partly due to the Harshad Mehta scam), the BSE Sensex remained flat for next 11 years even as the benefits of Liberalisation continued. There were the Asian crisis, Pokhran nuclear test (leading to global sanctions), and the Kargil War all in between.
In the 2004 elections, there were high expectations of the BJP-led government’s re-election under Mr. Atal Bihari Vajpayee. We all remember the optimistic “India Shining” campaign. Contrary to expectations, the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) won, initially leading to a 14% drop in the Nifty Index over the month following the election. However, the market was up 24% next year due to the Chinese commodity boom.
Or, take the 2009 elections, when Sensex was up 81% for the full year on re-election of The UPA’s government with a stronger coalition. How much of this was due to UPA re-election and how much a recovery from steep fall the previous year due to the Global Financial Crisis, is difficult to segregate.
In summary, it is not very easy to pinpoint election outcome’s exact and solitary impact on stock markets both in near term and longer term. This is because not only do prices bake in expectations, but there are other factors at play too.
Our approach is taking election outcomes as one of the many inputs into assessment of a company’s economic worth and comparing that worth with prices. Election outcomes stack lower than many other more important inputs like size of opportunity, competitive advantage, management quality etc in the pecking order. While there may be some businesses that directly benefit from who is in the power (infra, mining, defence, capital goods etc), economic cadence of businesses that we like (not many in the above list) are not materially affected by who’s in charge of the country so long as capitalism and free enterprise flourish.
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As always, gratitude for your trust and patience. Kindly do share your thoughts, if any. Your feedback helps us improve our services to you!
Kind regards,
Team Compound Everyday Capital
Sumit Sarda, Surbhi Kabra Sarda, Punit Patni, Arpit Parmar, Sanjana Sukhtankar and Anand Parashar
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Disclaimer: Compound Everyday Capital Management LLP is SEBI registered Portfolio Manager with registration number INP 000006633. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. All information provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be deemed as a recommendation to buy or sell securities. This transmission is confidential and may not be redistributed without the express written consent of Compound Everyday Capital Management LLP and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase any security or investment product. Reference to an index does not imply that the firm will achieve returns, volatility, or other results similar to the index.