{"id":349,"date":"2021-04-09T04:20:34","date_gmt":"2021-04-09T04:20:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cedcapital.in\/?p=349"},"modified":"2021-04-09T04:20:34","modified_gmt":"2021-04-09T04:20:34","slug":"letter-to-investors-mar-2021-extracts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cedcapital.in\/?p=349","title":{"rendered":"Letter to Investors \u2013 Mar 2021\u2013 Extracts"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<table style=\"width: 100%; border-collapse: collapse; background-color: #dcdcdc;\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"width: 100%;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>EXECUTIVE SUMMARY<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">TTM earnings of underlying companies grew by 5.7%. That of Nifty 50 and Nifty 500 grew by -6.2% &amp; 3.3% respectively.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">NAV grew by 48.5% YTD with 71% funds invested. NSE Nifty 50 and Nifty 500 grew by 72.5% and 77.6% respectively.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Covid-19 led worldwide lockdowns created 1930s like depression threat. Assets worldwide fell 30-50% in shortest time.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Unprecedented global stimulus and vaccine development flipped sentiments and sent markets up 80-100% from lows.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Stance: Cautious<\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Dear Fellow Investors<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><em>Test match Vs T20 match<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">10 Overs, 40 runs, 0 wickets. How\u2019s this for a first innings cricket match score? You will rightly ask \u2013 What\u2019s the <em>format<\/em> of this game? It\u2019s a bad score for a twenty-twenty (T20) match, average score for a one day (ODI) match and a decent score for a test match. And if it\u2019s indeed a test match with bouncy pitch, overcast conditions and the best bowling unit in the world &#8211; you will say it\u2019s a <em>fantastic<\/em> score.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">In cricket and in investing, it\u2019s impossible and, even, unfair to judge a score without knowing what format of the game it is. What\u2019s good for T20 may be bad for test matches. <strong>What\u2019s good for momentum trading may be bad for long term investing<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">We are playing a test match and not a T20. The key to <em>success<\/em> \u2013 both in test match batting and long term investing &#8211; is to leave or defend the balls that are risky. And, hit only when the ball is in the <em>sweet zone<\/em>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>This investing sweet zone for us is buying sustainable businesses, run by able and honest management, at reasonable prices<\/strong>. And so long the ball is not in this zone \u2013 either the business and\/or management and\/or price are bad \u2013 and the last one is a case today &#8211; we wait, and wait and wait. For that juicy half volley or full toss right in our zone. They normally come.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">T20s are more popular than test matches. Similarly, short term investment horizon and momentum based trading are more common than long term horizon and value oriented investing. Popular attention is focussed on what\u2019s going to happen next day, week or month in markets. This should not let us forget that <strong>we are playing a different game<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">As we complete twelve Covid-19 affected months, the market sentiments have flipped from fear to greed. <strong>Prices in most of the pockets, today, are discounting optimistic future earnings with low discount rates from today till infinity<\/strong>. While risk should always be primary investing focus, it\u2019s all the more necessary when prices are discounting optimism. Reiterating in test cricket parlance, the batting conditions have again become difficult and it\u2019s time to protect our wickets. <strong>Cautious stance stays.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h1><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18pt;\">A. PERFORMANCE<\/span><\/span><\/h1>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">A1. Statutory PMS Performance Disclosure<\/span><\/span><\/h2>\n<table style=\"width: 91.6%; border-collapse: collapse; background-color: #dcdcdc;\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"width: 36.3665%;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Portfolio<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 12.1068%; text-align: right;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">FY 2021\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 11.3279%; text-align: right;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">FY 2020*<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 12.287%; text-align: right;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Since Inception*<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 5.80841%; text-align: right;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Outper-formance<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.0714%; text-align: right;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Avg YTD Cash\u00a0 Bal.<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"width: 36.3665%;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">CED Long Term Focused Value (PMS)<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 12.1068%; text-align: right;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">48.5%<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 11.3279%; text-align: right;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">-9.5%<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 12.287%; text-align: right;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">34.3%<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 5.80841%; text-align: right;\"><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.0714%; text-align: right;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">29.0%<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"width: 36.3665%;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\">NSE Nifty 500 TRI (includes dividends)<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 12.1068%; text-align: right;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\">77.6%<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 11.3279%; text-align: right;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\">-23.6%<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 12.287%; text-align: right;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\">35.7%<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 5.80841%; text-align: right;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\">-1.4%<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.0714%; text-align: right;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\">NIL<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"width: 36.3665%;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\">NSE Nifty 50 TRI (includes dividends)<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 12.1068%; text-align: right;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\">72.5%<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 11.3279%; text-align: right;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\">-23.5%<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 12.287%; text-align: right;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\">32.0%<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 5.80841%; text-align: right;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\">2.3%<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.0714%; text-align: right;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\">NIL<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"width: 93.9681%;\" colspan=\"6\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><em>*From Jul 24, 2019; Note: As required by SEBI, the returns are calculated on time weighted average (NAV) basis. The returns are NET OF ALL EXPENSES AND FEES. The returns pertain to ENTIRE portfolio of our one and only strategy. Individual investor returns may vary from above owing to different investment dates. Annual returns are audited but not verified by SEBI.<\/em><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">For the year ended March 31, 2021, NAV of our aggregate portfolio was up 48.5% after all expenses and fees. NSE Nifty 500 and Nifty 50 were up 77.6% and 72.5% respectively. During the year we were invested in equities, on monthly average basis, to the extent of <strong>71%. <\/strong>Your returns may differ from this depending on the date of your investments.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">One needs to guard against the desire to be a top performer at all times. Markets are not always rational and often go through bubbles. The most popular sectors during bubbles trade at exorbitant valuations and see a rise in their weights in benchmark indices. A top quartile performance during those times can be obtained only by going overweight on popular sectors. And what\u2019s popular is seldom cheap &#8211; tech in 1999, infra and real estate in 2007 and quality\/ growth in 2020. Other things remaining constant, <strong>an<\/strong> <strong>underperformance versus the benchmark is a <u>leading indicator<\/u> of risk reduction during buoyant times<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong><u>A2. Underlying business performance<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<table style=\"height: 292px; width: 91.6571%; border-collapse: collapse; background-color: #dcdcdc;\">\n<tbody>\n<tr style=\"height: 23px;\">\n<td style=\"width: 33.3333%; height: 23px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">Period<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 33.3333%; height: 23px; text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\"><strong>Past twelve months<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 25.2011%; height: 23px; text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\"><strong>FY 2021 EPU (expected) <\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 26px;\">\n<td style=\"width: 33.3333%; height: 26px;\"><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 33.3333%; height: 26px; text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\"><strong>Earnings per unit (EPU)<sup>2<\/sup><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 25.2011%; height: 26px; text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\"><strong>Earnings per unit (EPU)<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 23px;\">\n<td style=\"width: 33.3333%; height: 23px;\"><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 33.3333%; height: 23px; text-align: center;\"><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 25.2011%; height: 23px; text-align: center;\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 26px;\">\n<td style=\"width: 33.3333%; height: 26px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">Mar 2021<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 33.3333%; height: 26px; text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\"><strong>4.8<sup>1<\/sup><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 25.2011%; height: 26px; text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\"><strong>5.8<sup>3<\/sup><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 23px;\">\n<td style=\"width: 33.3333%; height: 23px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">Dec 2020 <span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">(Previous Quarter)<\/span><\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 33.3333%; height: 23px; text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">5.1<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 25.2011%; height: 23px; text-align: center;\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 23px;\">\n<td style=\"width: 33.3333%; height: 23px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">Mar 2020 <span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">(Previous Year)<\/span><\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 33.3333%; height: 23px; text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">5.7<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 25.2011%; height: 23px; text-align: center;\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 23px;\">\n<td style=\"width: 33.3333%; height: 23px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">Annual Change<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 33.3333%; height: 23px; text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">-15.8%<sup>4<\/sup><\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 25.2011%; height: 23px; text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">20%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 23px;\">\n<td style=\"width: 33.3333%; height: 23px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">CAGR since inception (Jun 2019)<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 33.3333%; height: 23px; text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">0.1%<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 25.2011%; height: 23px; text-align: center;\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 102px;\">\n<td style=\"width: 91.8677%; height: 102px;\" colspan=\"3\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\"><em><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><sup>1 <\/sup>Last four quarters ending Sep 2020. Results of Dec quarter are declared by Feb only. <sup>2<\/sup> EPU = Total normalised earnings accruing to the aggregate portfolio divided by units outstanding. <sup>3 <\/sup>Please note: the forward earnings per unit (EPU) are conservative estimates of our expectation of future earnings of underlying companies. In past we have been wrong \u2013 often by wide margin \u2013 in our estimates and there is a risk that we are wrong about the forward EPU reported to you above. <sup>4<\/sup> +5.7% if we exclude one position where there was temporary loss due to Covid-19.<\/span><\/em><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Trailing Earnings:<\/strong> In line with our earnings per unit (EPU) guided range of Rs 4.0-5.0, Mar 2021 trailing twelve months EPU came in at Rs 4.8, lower by 15.8% over last year (effects of 29% cash equivalents is included). <em>If we exclude one position which posted temporary loss due to Covid-19, our <strong>EPU grew by 5.7%.<\/strong><\/em> In comparison, the adjusted earnings of Nifty 50 and Nifty 500 companies grew by -6.2% and 3.3% respectively in the same period (source: Capitaline).<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>1-Yr Forward Earnings:<\/strong> If the vaccination against Covid-19 gathers pace, the lower base of current year will help us put a healthy earnings growth for FY 22. Given the present conditions and assuming no material surprises, we expect our next year\u2019s EPU to close around <strong>Rs 5.8, a growth of ~20%.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong><u>A3. Underlying portfolio parameters<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<table style=\"width: 90.8587%; border-collapse: collapse; background-color: #dcdcdc; height: 221px;\">\n<tbody>\n<tr style=\"height: 58px;\">\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; height: 58px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Mar 2021<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 12.0403%; text-align: right; height: 58px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Trailing P\/E<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 11.3655%; text-align: right; height: 58px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Forward P\/E<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 11.7429%; text-align: right; height: 58px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Portfolio RoE<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 21.801%; text-align: right; height: 58px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">TTM<sup>4<\/sup> Earnings Growth<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 17.5314%; text-align: right; height: 58px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Portfolio Turnover<sup>1<\/sup><\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 55px;\">\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; height: 55px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">CED LTFV (PMS)<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 12.0403%; text-align: right; height: 55px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">28.0x<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 11.3655%; text-align: right; height: 55px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">23.2x<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 11.7429%; text-align: right; height: 55px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">13.5%<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 21.801%; text-align: right; height: 55px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">-15.8%<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 17.5314%; text-align: right; height: 55px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">3.6%<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 30px;\">\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; height: 30px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">NSE 50<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 12.0403%; text-align: right; height: 30px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">33.2x<sup>2<\/sup><\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 11.3655%; text-align: right; height: 30px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">&#8211;<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 11.7429%; text-align: right; height: 30px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">11.9%<sup>3<\/sup><\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 21.801%; text-align: right; height: 30px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">-6.2%<sup>3<\/sup><\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 17.5314%; text-align: right; height: 30px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">&#8211;<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 30px;\">\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; height: 30px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">NSE 500<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 12.0403%; text-align: right; height: 30px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">35.9x<sup>2<\/sup><\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 11.3655%; text-align: right; height: 30px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">&#8211;<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 11.7429%; text-align: right; height: 30px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">17.2%<sup>3<\/sup><\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 21.801%; text-align: right; height: 30px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">+3.3%<sup>3<\/sup><\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 17.5314%; text-align: right; height: 30px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">&#8211;<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 48px;\">\n<td style=\"width: 91.1478%; height: 48px;\" colspan=\"6\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><em><sup>1<\/sup><\/em><em> \u2018sale of equity shares\u2019 divided by \u2018average portfolio value\u2019 during the year to date period. <sup>2<\/sup> Source: NSE. <sup>3<\/sup>Source: Capitaline. <sup>4<\/sup>Trailing Twelve Months<\/em><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h1><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18pt;\">B. DETAILS ON PERFORMANCE<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h1>\n<h2><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">B1. MISTAKES AND LEARNINGS<\/span><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">The biggest treasure that we have built over last 9 years is not the compounded returns, but direct experiences of many mistakes. Mistakes are stupid, but they are also beautiful. Learnings from a mistake that comes with monetary loss sticks. And it is 10x (arbitrary number) impactful than learning from others\u2019 mistake. When we say that we should avoid bad businesses and\/ or bad managements and\/or bad prices, we know what it means. So we keep reminding ourselves:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">From our two past mistakes- <strong>\u201cCera Sanitaryware\u201d<\/strong> and <strong>\u201c2015-16\u201d<\/strong> &#8211; we learnt that unless fundamentals are extremely compelling, it is better to be gradual in selling and buying respectively. From our past mistake on <strong>\u201cTreehouse Education\u201d <\/strong>we have learnt that bad management deserves a low price, it\u2019s seldom a bargain. In <strong>Dish TV<\/strong> we underestimated the competitive disruption but thankfully sold at breakeven. <strong>Tata Motors DVR<\/strong> taught us that cyclical investing requires a different mindset to moat investing and one needs to be quick to act when external environment turns adverse. In <strong>Talwalkars<\/strong>, we learnt that assessing promoter quality is a difficult job and we should err on the side of caution irrespective of how cheap quantitative valuations look. From <strong>DB Corp<\/strong> we learned that industries in structural decline will fail to get high multiples even if the industry is consolidated, competition limited and free cash flows healthy. <strong><u>\u00a0<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">B4. FLOWS AND SENTIMENTS<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">The US government approved an additional 1.9trn$ Covid-19 stimulus. This along with previous rounds, takes the total US Covid stimulus to 6trn$ (28% of pre covid US GDP). The 10Yr US government security (G-Sec) yields have risen from 0.5% to 1.7% in last 8 months and inflation fears are making the rounds. The US Federal Reserve, however, repeated their tolerance for higher inflation till the goal of full employment is achieved. Thus, <strong>fiscal and monetary stimulus in the US continue to support global sentiments towards risky assets including equities.<\/strong> It is difficult to guess when this will pause\/ reverse.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Back home, the markets were pleased with absence of any new tax in the Indian Union Budget 2021. Announcements on stimulating growth by increasing public capital expenditure by over 25% also improved market sentiments. <strong>FPIs equity inflows continued and surged over 37bn in FY21 as against net inflows of USD 1.3 billion in FY20<\/strong> (source: NSDL).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">In sequel to the last letter about <strong>observations of crazy behaviour<\/strong> in markets, we continued to observe more such behaviours, as noted below. To clarify, it is still difficult to conclude a bubble, however we need to remain watchful.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Globally<\/strong>, IPO markets continue to remain buoyant. Airbnb that went public at 68$, closed at 187$ recently despite Covid restrictions on travel. Kuaishou, a Tik-Tock rival, raised 5.4bn$ in the biggest IPO since Uber, and listed on HK with 160% listing pop. Bumble a loss making dating app, had 68% listing pop valuing it at 7.7bn$. Coupang, touted as baby Amazon of South Korea, raised $4.6bn in its IPO with an 81% listing pop.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Combination of social media and zero\/low cost trading is promoting curious behaviour. <strong>Gamestop<\/strong>, a traditional US video game company, was a short squeeze target of Wallstreetbets, a chat forum on Reddit (social media site). Powered by social media and no-cost-Robinhood-trading, many forum members kept on buying the Gamestop stock, pumping the price up 15x in 20 days. This forced hedge fund Melvin Capital to close its short position (the hedge fund had borrowed and sold the shares in the bet that its price will fall) and raise 3bn$ to save itself.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">As per a <em>Financial Times<\/em> report, <strong>global mergers and acquisitions<\/strong> (M&amp;A) have seen their strongest developments in four decades in the March quarter of 2021. There were around $1.3 trillion in deals agreed, more than any first quarter since 1980 and higher than the dotcom boom of the 1999-2000.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">The bubble in <strong>Electric Vehicle<\/strong> (EV) space continues to grow bigger. As per an <em>Economist<\/em> report, the collective market capitalisation of EV and EV related stocks such as Tesla, CATL, BYD, NIO, LG Chemicals, and Samsung SDI has jumped from $163bn in Jan 2020 to $1,275bn in Feb 2021. Their P\/E ratio has risen from 30x to 123x.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Price of crypto currency <strong>Bitcoin<\/strong> hit 60,000$, a rise of over 9x in one year. Tesla is allowing customers to buy its car using Bitcoins. A few hedge funds have recognised it as an investible asset. We have no insight into crypto currencies, but it amuses us how a <em>currency<\/em> can be so volatile.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Back in <strong>India<\/strong>, like in the initial stages of every past bubble, <strong>retail activity<\/strong> is rising in direct equities. As per <em>AMFI<\/em>, equity mutual funds have seen net outflows for 8 consecutive months since July-Feb to the tune of INR 58,000cr. At the same time, 1cr new demat accounts were open in last year, a growth of 25%. Retail holdings in NSE listed companies have reached an 11 year high of 7% last year. Investors are booking profits in mutual funds and investing\/ trading in direct equities on their own. Commissions of listed brokers\u2019, who cater mainly to retail clients, have risen 80-100% in recent quarters. Upstox a retail discount broker has become multi-year official partner of the Indian Premier League (the only capital market entity on IPL\u2019s sponsor roster) and is planning a US listing. A unidirectional rising market and listing pops in many IPOs continues to fuel retail investors\u2019 interest.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Since July last year, 29 <strong>IPOs<\/strong> have hit the India market. Of the Rs 30,000cr they have raised, around two-third was \u2018offer for sale, or OFS\u2019 \u2013 money going to the selling shareholders and not to the company. These insiders wait for market optimism to time their sale to maximise their selling price. This is reflected in their 31x median P\/E. Yet the retail and institutional portions were oversubscribed by average 25x and 60x respectively. There are additional 21 IPOs worth Rs. 19,000 cr that have received SEBI approval. This doesnot include the proposed mega IPO of LIC.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h1><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18pt;\">C. OTHER THOUGHTS<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h1>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Low interest rates = Low future equity returns<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Low interest rates have been often cited as a justification for higher current equity valuations. When fixed income instruments are yielding 0%-2% in the developed world, investors flock to riskier assets in search of higher returns and equities benefit from this lack of investible opportunities.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">However, a corollary to this is lower future equity returns. If investors believe that lower interest rates offer arbitrage benefit to equities and bid up equity prices, this act should reduce the arbitrage and make future returns of all asset classes converge. In other words, if interest rates of 1% around the world pushes money towards equities, future returns from equities will not be different from 1%. Many investors are not taking this into account.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Secondly, there is an implicit assumption that interest rate will remain so low forever. If that\u2019s not the case and rates do rise, they will hit a long tenured asset harder. A 10 year bond falls more in % terms than a 1 year bond for a same rise in interest rates. And equities are perpetual assets. If interest rates do rise, equities are going to fall substantially more.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">While everyone\u2019s happy that lower interest rates and abundant capital supports rising equity prices, here\u2019s an outcome that many investing carelessly today may not like: low equity returns if interest rates remain low; and negative equity returns if interest rate increase even marginally. When prices are bid up aggressively &#8211; heads you lose, tails you lose too!<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">The one safeguard against this is to buy equities assuming that interest rates are already high and leave some margin of safety.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Buy High. Sell Low. Repeat. Go Broke<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Nothing is as financially ruinous as consistently buying high and selling low. Yet we see it happening all the time. <strong>Ignorance, emotions, and miss-selling<\/strong> interact with each other to powerfully induce this folly.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Without a sense of a company\u2019s worth, it is impossible to judge whether its share price is high or low. Assessing that worth requires understanding of underlying business and many investors donot have time, interest or ability to do it. <strong>Price trend<\/strong> is generally used as a substitute for this ignorance about intrinsic value. Companies seeing price rising are considered as good and vice versa. When more people believe in this momentum, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. <strong>Ignorance encourages buying assets that are rising<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Nothing intoxicates human mind as rising prices. Rising prices trigger <strong>emotions<\/strong> of envy, FOMO (fear of missing out) and greed. Those sitting on side-lines get interested. And those making money feel invincible and take more risks even on leverage.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Times of rising markets is <em>business-season<\/em> for many <em>\u201cexperts\u201d<\/em> \u2013 distributors, advisers, brokers, merchant bankers etc. Sadly, financial incentives of almost all \u201cexperts\u201d are linked to <em>selling<\/em> financial products &#8211; stocks, mutual funds, IPOs, insurance policies &#8211; and not good <em>outcomes<\/em> for investors. This leads to <strong>miss-selling<\/strong>. Mutual funds, life insurers and capital raising companies paid over INR 37,000cr (rough conservative estimate) worth of commissions last year to these \u201cexperts\u201d. This was paid without any linkage to the buyers\u2019 returns from the financial products sold.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>When willingness to buy during rising prices is met by advice that pays the advisor for selling expensive products, it creates a powerful force to buy high. <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">The same story reverses when prices fall. In absence of sense of intrinsic value most investors fail to assess whether paper losses are temporary or permanent. Momentum and emotions trigger a rush for the door. And those \u201cexperts\u201d who peddled the products during rising prices either disappear or are not heard.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Here\u2019s a crude <strong>antidote<\/strong> to this: When past returns of an asset class are high, ignore all temptations and \u201cexpert advice\u201d of even higher returns. Conversely, when past returns of an asset class are low or even negative, ignore anything that stops you from investing. Lastly, when taking help from \u201cexperts\u201d, see that they are remunerated for results, not selling products. <span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\">When you get a call from a life insurance agent, just hang up!<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">***<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">We have been through a very difficult year. It posed serious challenge to many businesses including ours. Importantly, the volatility that it brought along unnerved many investors. Our businesses have withstood the litmus test well. Importantly and please don\u2019t undermine this &#8211; your behaviour has been praiseworthy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Thanks for sticking by. And thanks for your continued trust. You can be absolutely sure that we keep your investment interests at the fore of everything we do at this firm. That is the only way we will continue to be worthy of your trust.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Please feel free to share your thoughts, feedback and criticisms.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Kind regards,<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Team Compound Everyday Capital<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Sumit Sarda, Surbhi Kabra Sarda, Suraj Fatehchandani, Sachin Shrivastava, Sanjana Sukhtankar and Anand Parashar<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;-<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\">Disclaimer: Compound Everyday Capital Management LLP is SEBI registered Portfolio Manager with registration number INP 000006633. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. All information provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be deemed as a recommendation to buy or sell securities. This transmission is confidential and may not be redistributed without the express written consent of Compound Everyday Capital Management LLP and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase any security or investment product. Reference to an index does not imply that the firm will achieve returns, volatility, or other results similar to the index.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; EXECUTIVE SUMMARY TTM earnings of underlying companies grew by 5.7%. That of Nifty 50 and Nifty 500 grew by -6.2% &amp; 3.3% respectively. NAV grew by 48.5% YTD with 71% funds invested. NSE Nifty 50 and Nifty 500 grew by 72.5% and 77.6% respectively. Covid-19 led worldwide lockdowns created 1930s like depression threat. Assets [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,1,9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-349","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-investment-process","category-investment-psychology","category-quarterly-update"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cedcapital.in\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/349","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cedcapital.in\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cedcapital.in\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cedcapital.in\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cedcapital.in\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=349"}],"version-history":[{"count":16,"href":"https:\/\/cedcapital.in\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/349\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":370,"href":"https:\/\/cedcapital.in\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/349\/revisions\/370"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cedcapital.in\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=349"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cedcapital.in\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=349"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cedcapital.in\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=349"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}