{"id":1326,"date":"2025-07-08T06:01:21","date_gmt":"2025-07-08T06:01:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cedcapital.in\/?p=1326"},"modified":"2025-07-09T03:29:21","modified_gmt":"2025-07-09T03:29:21","slug":"letter-to-investors-jun25-extracts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cedcapital.in\/?p=1326","title":{"rendered":"Letter to Investors \u2013 Jun\u201925 \u2013 Extracts"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<table style=\"width: 100%; border-collapse: collapse; background-color: #dcdcdc;\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"width: 100%;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>EXECUTIVE SUMMARY<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Trailing twelve months\u2019 earnings of underlying portfolio companies grew by <strong>13.4%<\/strong>. <\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">NAV grew by <strong>14.8% YTD<\/strong> with 80% funds invested in equity positions. Balance 20% is parked in liquid\/ arbitrage funds.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Controlling risk through <strong>\u201cone durable variable businesses (1DVB)\u201d<\/strong>.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\"><strong>Portfolio changes:<\/strong> we added to three existing positions and exited from one.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\"><strong>Mistake:<\/strong> Music Broadcast arbitrage position (loss of 0.5% of AUM).<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Investing is an inexact science and this creates unique challenges.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Stance: Neutral<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Dear Fellow Investors,<strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong><em>Controlling Risk through \u2018One Durable Variable Businesses (1DVB)\u2019<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Our preferred way to manage investment and portfolio risk is to buy and hold businesses that are:<\/span><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Easier to value with reasonable confidence,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Trading at or below their intrinsic worth, and<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Diversified across different drivers (i.e., low mutual correlation)<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Today, we focus on the first and the enabling element:<strong> estimating the intrinsic worth of a business<\/strong>. If this is done well, the next two steps\u2014buying at a discount and diversifying intelligently\u2014become much more manageable.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>What is Intrinsic Worth?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">At its core, the intrinsic value of a business is the <strong>present value of all future free cash flows<\/strong> it will generate over its life (free cashflow means cash profits less business investments). While this definition is conceptually simple, its practical application is difficult\u2014because it involves <strong>predicting the future<\/strong>. And the future, by nature, is uncertain and unknowable. So, how can we reliably estimate the future of a business?<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>The Idea of 1DVB<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">This is where, what we call, the concept of <strong>One Durable Variable Businesses (1DVB)<\/strong> becomes relevant. We define a <strong>1DVB<\/strong> as a business where <strong>a single, durable variable<\/strong> is the primary driver of long-term free cash flows.<\/span><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>One Variable<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">The litmus test of business-understanding is whether we can identify the <strong>key variables that drive its free cash flows<\/strong>. Examples of such variables include auto volumes, credit growth, new home construction, AUM (assets under management) etc. The <strong>fewer the number of variables<\/strong>, the <strong>lower the complexity<\/strong>, and the easier it becomes to build a mental model of the business. An ideal case is a business driven largely by a <strong>single dominant variable<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Durability<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Singularity of driving variable is essential, but <strong>incomplete<\/strong> in itself. The second essential requirement is <strong>durability \u2013 <\/strong>ability to survive and thrive for long period of time. For it to be useful for forecasting, the key driver must be <strong>durable<\/strong>\u2014meaning it should withstand disruption, competition, or regulatory shocks; and be well governed. Durability stems from three main sources:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Competitive advantage<\/strong>: Ability to fend off competitors and disruptions sustainably.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Stakeholder benefit<\/strong>: A business that benefits stakeholders is less likely to attract regulatory ire.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Governance<\/strong>: Efficient and shareholder-aligned management ensures the business steers clear of self-inflicted damage.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Examples of 1DVBs<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<table width=\"100%\">\n<thead>\n<tr style=\"background-color: #d9d4d4;\">\n<td width=\"17%\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Business Type<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"27%\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Primary Variable<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"53%\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Durability Source <\/strong>(for some companies)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"17%\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Stock exchanges<\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"27%\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Transaction value<\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"53%\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Network effects (more users \u2192 more liquidity)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"17%\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Mutual funds<\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"27%\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Assets under management<\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"53%\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Trust, distribution, low costs<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"17%\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Auto ancillaries<\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"27%\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Auto volume<\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"53%\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Switching costs, engine agnosticity, quality<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"17%\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Lenders<\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"27%\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Credit growth<\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"53%\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Underwriting culture, cost of funds, distribution<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"17%\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Capital goods<\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"27%\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Capex cycle<\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"53%\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Installed base, technological edge<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"17%\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Credit ratings<\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"27%\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Value of debt rated<\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"53%\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Regulatory license, track record, reputation<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>1DVBs as perpetual bonds<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">When a business has a single, durable cash flow driver, and we understand both the driver and its source of durability, the <strong>range of future outcomes narrows<\/strong>. The business becomes somewhat similar to a debt instrument \u2014a predictable stream of cash flows, subject to less variability and disruption risk. This makes it possible to assign a more credible and stable estimate of intrinsic worth, reducing the chance of major valuation errors.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Factoring growth and cyclicality<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">While many businesses can share the 1DVB trait, their growth trajectories and cyclicality may differ.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Some will enjoy steady, structural growth (e.g., stock exchanges).<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Others may be cyclical (e.g., capital goods, auto ancillaries), where demand ebbs and flows with macroeconomic cycles.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">It&#8217;s important to distinguish cyclical upswings from sustainable growth. Mistaking the former for the latter is a common pitfall. Also, <strong>growth without durability is dangerous<\/strong>\u2014it tempts overvaluation and underestimates risk.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Controlling risk with 1DVBs<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">In test cricket parlance, only when a batsman knows where his <em>off stump<\/em> is, can he decide whether to play or leave a swinging ball. In investing, that off stump is the intrinsic value of a business. 1DVBs allows for knowing where exactly the investing off stump (intrinsic value) is so that overpriced stocks can be left and only reasonably priced stocks are played. This lowers individual <strong>stock risk<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Secondly, by building a portfolio of such well bought 1DVBs driven by different underlying variables we can ensure that they don\u2019t all falter or flourish at the same time, lowering <strong>portfolio risk<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">A thoughtful portfolio of <strong>uncorrelated 1DVBs<\/strong>, bought at <strong>sensible prices<\/strong>, provides a strong foundation for long-term compounding with risk control. And till we find such constituents, it is okay to wait.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18pt; text-decoration-line: underline;\">A. PERFORMANCE<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">A1. Statutory PMS Performance Disclosure<\/span><\/span><\/h2>\n<table style=\"border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%; height: 384px;\">\n<tbody>\n<tr style=\"background-color: #d9d4d4;\">\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; height: 28px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Year Ended<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 33.3334%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\" colspan=\"2\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">CED Long Term Focused Value (PMS)<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 33.3334%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\" colspan=\"2\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">BSE 500 TRI (Benchmark)<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Difference<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"background-color: #d9d4d4;\">\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; height: 28px;\"><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Return<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\"><span style=\"color: #999999;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Avg. Cash Eq. Bal.<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Return<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\"><span style=\"color: #999999;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Trailing P\/E<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 28px;\">\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; height: 28px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">YTD FY26<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">14.8%<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\"><span style=\"color: #999999;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">20.3%<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">10.8%<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\"><span style=\"color: #999999;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">25.7x<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">+4.0%<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 28px;\">\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; height: 28px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">FY 2025<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">10.3%<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #999999;\">21.0%<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">6.0%<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #999999;\">23.4x<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">+4.3%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 28px;\">\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; height: 28px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">FY 2024<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">29.2%<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #999999;\">26.1%<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">40.2%<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #999999;\">26.2x<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">-11.0%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 28px;\">\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; height: 28px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">FY 2023<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">-4.3%<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #999999;\">30.0%<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">-0.9%<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #999999;\">22.3x<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">-3.4%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 28px;\">\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; height: 28px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">FY 2022<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">14.9%<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #999999;\">38.5%<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">22.3%<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #999999;\">25.0x<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">-7.4%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 28px;\">\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; height: 28px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">FY 2021<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">48.5%<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #999999;\">29.0%<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">78.6%<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #999999;\">38.0x<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">-30.1%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 28px;\">\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; height: 28px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">FY 2020*<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">-9.5%<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #999999;\">23.0%<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">-23.4%<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #999999;\">18.3x<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">+13.9%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 28px;\">\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; height: 28px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Since Inception(6Y)<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">16.0%<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\"><span style=\"color: #999999;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">27.9%<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">18.4%<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\"><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; text-align: center; height: 28px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">-2.4%<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 104px;\">\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; height: 104px;\" colspan=\"6\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><em>*From Jul 24, 2019; Since inception performance is annualised; Note: As required by SEBI, the returns are calculated on time weighted average (NAV) basis. The returns are NET OF ALL EXPENSES AND FEES. The returns pertain to ENTIRE portfolio of our one and only strategy. Individual investor returns may vary from above owing to different investment dates. Annual returns are audited but not verified by SEBI.<\/em><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Kindness of strangers<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Typically, it takes five or more years for skill to show through in investing. But the past five have been unusual. Median valuations haven\u2019t just stayed high\u2014they\u2019ve risen further, largely due to a surge in retail investor flows. Investing in such a market has felt like relying on the kindness of strangers\u2014expecting ever-rising liquidity to drive prices higher, regardless of fundamentals.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">We\u2019ve preferred to anchor ourselves to what holds true over decades: valuation discipline. While liquidity trends are new and fickle, valuation mean reversion has stood the test of time. That belief led us to maintain an average 28% cash-equivalent reserve (liquid\/ arbitrage funds) over the last five years, waiting for rightly priced opportunities.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">This caution helped during the Sep\u201924\u2013Feb\u201925 correction, when our portfolio held up well. It marked the first meaningful test in years\u2014and we were prepared. We believe the next phase will reward discipline. As valuations revert toward long-term averages, we\u2019re positioned not just for resilience, but to act decisively when true value emerges.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong><u>A2. Underlying business performance<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<table style=\"height: 288px; width: 91.6571%; border-collapse: collapse; background-color: #dcdcdc;\">\n<tbody>\n<tr style=\"height: 23px;\">\n<td style=\"width: 33.3333%; height: 23px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Past Twelve Months<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 33.3333%; height: 23px; text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\"><strong>Earnings per unit (EPU)<sup>2<\/sup><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 25.2011%; height: 23px; text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\"><strong>FY 2025 EPU (expected) <\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 23px;\">\n<td style=\"width: 33.3333%; height: 23px;\"><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 33.3333%; height: 23px; text-align: center;\"><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 25.2011%; height: 23px; text-align: center;\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 26px;\">\n<td style=\"width: 33.3333%; height: 26px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Mar 2025<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 33.3333%; height: 26px; text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\"><strong>9.3<sup>1<\/sup><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 25.2011%; height: 26px; text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\"><strong>10.0-10.8<sup>3<\/sup><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 24px;\">\n<td style=\"width: 33.3333%; height: 24px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt; font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">(guidance was &#8211;&gt;)<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 33.3333%; text-align: center; height: 24px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt; font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">(8.5 &#8211; 9.5)<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 25.2011%; text-align: center; height: 24px;\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 23px;\">\n<td style=\"width: 33.3333%; height: 23px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">Dec 2024 (Previous Quarter)<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 33.3333%; height: 23px; text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">9.2<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 25.2011%; height: 23px; text-align: center;\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 23px;\">\n<td style=\"width: 33.3333%; height: 23px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">Mar 2025 (Previous Year)<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 33.3333%; height: 23px; text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">8.6<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 25.2011%; height: 23px; text-align: center;\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 23px;\">\n<td style=\"width: 33.3333%; height: 23px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">Annual Change<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 33.3333%; height: 23px; text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">13.4%<\/span><\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 25.2011%; height: 23px; text-align: center;\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 23px;\">\n<td style=\"width: 33.3333%; height: 23px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">CAGR since inception (Jun 2019)<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 33.3333%; height: 23px; text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">14.8%<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 25.2011%; height: 23px; text-align: center;\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 102px;\">\n<td style=\"width: 91.8677%; height: 100px;\" colspan=\"3\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\"><em><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><sup>1 <\/sup>Last four quarters ending Mar 2025. Results of June quarter are declared by Aug only. <sup>2<\/sup> EPU = Total normalised earnings accruing to the aggregate portfolio divided by units outstanding. <sup>3 <\/sup>Please note: the forward earnings per unit (EPU) are conservative estimates of our expectation of future earnings of underlying companies. In past we have been wrong \u2013 often by wide margin \u2013 in our estimates and there is a risk that we are wrong about the forward EPU reported to you above.\u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Trailing Earnings:<\/strong> Earnings per unit for FY2025 came in at Rs 9.3 per share, within the range that we had expected at the start of the year (Rs 8.5-9.5 per share). This represents a <strong>growth 13.4% over last year<\/strong>. Since inception, earnings per unit, an indicator of earnings power of our underlying companies, has grown at 14.8%, marginally lower than our aspiration for 15%+ growth.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>1-Yr Forward Earnings:<\/strong> We introduce FY26 forward earnings per unit guidance at <strong>Rs 10.0-10.8, <\/strong>an expected growth of 10%-16% over FY25.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong><u>A3. Underlying portfolio parameters<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<table style=\"width: 90.8587%; border-collapse: collapse; background-color: #dcdcdc; height: 221px;\">\n<tbody>\n<tr style=\"height: 58px;\">\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; height: 58px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">June 2025<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 12.0403%; text-align: right; height: 58px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Trailing P\/E<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 11.3655%; text-align: right; height: 58px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Forward P\/E<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 11.7429%; text-align: right; height: 58px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Portfolio RoIC<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 17.5314%; text-align: right; height: 58px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Portfolio Turnover<sup>1<\/sup><\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 55px;\">\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; height: 55px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">CED LTFV (PMS)<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 12.0403%; text-align: right; height: 55px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">26.0x<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 11.3655%; text-align: right; height: 55px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">22.4x-24.2x<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 11.7429%; text-align: right; height: 55px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">34.0%<sup>3<\/sup><\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 17.5314%; text-align: right; height: 55px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">11.2%<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 30px;\">\n<td style=\"width: 16.6667%; height: 30px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">BSE 500<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 12.0403%; text-align: right; height: 30px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">25.7x<sup>2<\/sup><\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 11.3655%; text-align: right; height: 30px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">&#8211;<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 11.7429%; text-align: right; height: 30px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">16.5%<sup>2<\/sup><\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 17.5314%; text-align: right; height: 30px;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: 18.6667px;\">&#8211;<\/span><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 48px;\">\n<td style=\"width: 69.3468%; height: 48px;\" colspan=\"5\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><em style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><sup>1<\/sup><\/em><em><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"> \u2018sale of equity shares\u2019 divided by \u2018average portfolio value\u2019 during the year to date period. <\/span><sup>2<\/sup><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\">Source: Asia Index. <sup>3<\/sup>Portfolio Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) is on core equity positions. For BSE 500 index we share the RoE (Return on Equity)<\/span><\/em><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h1><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18pt;\">B. DETAILS ON PERFORMANCE<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h1>\n<h2><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">B1. MISTAKES AND LEARNINGS<\/span><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">In our older portfolios, we exited the equity leg of an experimental arbitrage position in <strong>Music Broadcast Ltd.<\/strong> <strong>(aka Radio City)<\/strong> at a loss of <strong>0.50% of AUM<\/strong>. While small in quantum, this position consumed time and mindshare disproportionate to its potential, and in hindsight, we classify it as a mistake.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">We had initiated this arbitrage setup three years ago. The idea was to buy equity shares and receive bonus preference shares (issued only to non-promoter shareholders) \u2014 effectively a special dividend with better tax treatment. At the time, the implied dividend yield was 30% of market cap, but 40\u201348% for eligible non-promoter shareholders, offering a theoretical arbitrage of 10\u201318%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Our plan was to exit the equity shares after the ex-date. However, instead of correcting ~30%, the stock price fell over 50%. We made the classic mistake of waiting for a recovery rather than cutting the position. Though we managed to exit a small part at higher levels, the stock declined further and remained depressed. As better opportunities emerged, we finally exited the remaining equity last quarter, incurring the loss.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">The reason the stock fell far more than expected remains unclear. Normally, stocks adjust by the dividend amount post ex-date. In this case, the price correction was significantly steeper. The only plausible explanation seems to be the structural challenges of the underlying radio business, which may be facing long-term decline.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">We continue to hold the <strong>preference shares<\/strong> \u2014 the other leg of the arbitrage \u2014 which cost us nothing and currently trade at \u20b9113, with a redemption value of \u20b9120 expected in eight months (an annualised return of 9.2%).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">While the position was designed as a low-risk special situation, the outcome reminds us that <strong>arbitrage strategies in low-quality businesses can be value traps<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">B2. MAJOR PORTFOLIO CHANGES<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Bought:<\/strong> We added further to three of our existing positions.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Sold:<\/strong> As mentioned in the earlier section, we have completely exited from Music Broadcast equity shares.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"text-decoration: underline; font-size: 14pt;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\"><strong>B4. FLOWS AND SENTIMENTS<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Tariff<\/strong> announcements from the US continued to influence global and local markets. While the steep and irrational tariffs imposed by the US on its trading partners have been paused, the average tariffs are still much higher than modern history. Globalisation led to comparative advantage efficiencies, productivity and prosperity. Reversal of the same should lead to some side effects and pain. How countries will counter-respond to and how supply chains will adapt is complicated to forecast and therefore continues to remain the key source of global and Indian demand uncertainty.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Back home, pause in tariffs and ceasefire at border soothed Indian markets. After falling between 12-20% between September 2024 and February 2025, market indices recovered most of the losses. Defence stocks came back in limelight and despite poor earnings results moved up 50-70% indicating return of investor euphoria.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Retail investors, via mutual funds and IPOs, continue to provide mouthwatering <strong>exits to promoters and private equity investors<\/strong> (insiders). Mutual funds inflows remain positive though lesser than peak. Gross SIP flows crossed past peak to go past 26,000cr mark. IPO pipelines, a bull market sign, are full again.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Earnings performance has been weak with BSE 500 companies reporting a 5% and 7% rise in revenue and earnings. Yet the stock prices continued to build in much higher earnings growth indicating buoyant mood and expensive valuations.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Overall, the <strong>sentiments and flows are back to their past highs<\/strong>, requiring caution and restraint.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h1><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18pt;\">C. OTHER THOUGHTS<\/span><\/span><\/h1>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Investing \u2013 An Inexact Science<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><em>All generalisations, including this one, are false<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">-Mark Twain<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">We learn mainly through <strong>imitation<\/strong> and <strong>experience<\/strong>. We observe others, draw lessons from past events, and use <strong>pattern recognition<\/strong> to establish cause-and-effect relationships that guide our future actions.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">A child learns to speak by mimicking their parents.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Early humans learned which berries were poisonous by watching others suffer\u2014or die\u2014after eating them.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Our minds try to extract rules from what we see and experience. This doesn\u2019t stop at language or survival. It influences how we approach <strong>investing <\/strong>as well.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Most investors \u2013 us included \u2013 have at some point looked for a magic formula. Something neat and repeatable that can lead to assured success. After a strong bull run, investors often try to <strong>reverse-engineer success<\/strong>, identifying what worked and assuming it will work again. But markets are rarely that obliging.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Unlike natural sciences, investing is not an exact discipline. In physics or chemistry, repeating the same actions under the same conditions yields predictable outcomes. Investing, on the other hand, operates in a dynamic system driven by <strong>human psychology, collective behaviour<\/strong>, and ever-changing <strong>context<\/strong>. The same action, under seemingly similar circumstances, can lead to vastly different results.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">For instance, investors have long believed that <strong>equities and gold<\/strong> move in opposite directions. Yet, in recent years, both asset classes have hit all-time highs simultaneously. Similarly, conventional wisdom holds that <strong>rising interest rates<\/strong> strengthen a currency, yet the US dollar has depreciated even as US interest rates have climbed. Past relationships, while useful, are not eternal truths. They can\u2014and do\u2014break.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Worse still, in markets, a successful idea often contains the seeds of its own undoing. Once a particular style or strategy proves effective, it attracts followers. As more participants crowd into the trade, the <strong>opportunity erodes<\/strong>. This is the <strong>paradox of popularity<\/strong>: the more widely something is followed, the less effective it becomes.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Take the oft-repeated advice: avoid low-quality businesses or overpriced stocks. Sensible advice, yet in the last few years, precisely these stocks have delivered stellar returns\u2014defying expectations and frustrating fundamental investors. Why? Because markets are <strong>reflexive<\/strong>. They are shaped not just by fundamentals but by <strong>what people believe about fundamentals<\/strong>. If enough people believe an average business is a great one, and act on that belief, they can drive the stock price up\u2014at least temporarily\u2014validating the belief, even if the underlying reality hasn\u2019t changed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">This is what makes investing uniquely hard: the <strong>absence of reliable guideposts<\/strong>. The past is an imperfect teacher. Relationships that held true in 90% of the past might fail precisely when you bet your house on them.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">The only dependable <strong>math\/ magic formula<\/strong> is that the value of business is the present value of its future free cash flows. While this gets violated from time to time, over longer term this has hold steadfast.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">The imprecise nature of investing requires acting with conviction while also preparing for the possibility that the world may behave differently this time. This paradox\u2014balancing belief with flexibility\u2014is the true art of investing.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">***<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">As always, gratitude for your trust and patience. Kindly do share your thoughts, if any. Your feedback helps us improve our services to you!<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Kind regards<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Sumit Sarda<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Partner and Portfolio Manager<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;-<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Disclaimer: Compound Everyday Capital Management LLP is SEBI registered Portfolio Manager with registration number INP 000006633. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. All information provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be deemed as a recommendation to buy or sell securities. This transmission is confidential and may not be redistributed without the express written consent of Compound Everyday Capital Management LLP and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase any security or investment product. Reference to an index does not imply that the firm will achieve returns, volatility, or other results similar to the index.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: tahoma, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong><u>\u00a0<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Trailing twelve months\u2019 earnings of underlying portfolio companies grew by 13.4%. NAV grew by 14.8% YTD with 80% funds invested in equity positions. Balance 20% is parked in liquid\/ arbitrage funds. Controlling risk through \u201cone durable variable businesses (1DVB)\u201d. Portfolio changes: we added to three existing positions and exited from one.\u00a0 Mistake: [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[19,3,9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1326","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-investment-mistake","category-investment-process","category-quarterly-update"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cedcapital.in\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1326","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cedcapital.in\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cedcapital.in\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cedcapital.in\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cedcapital.in\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1326"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/cedcapital.in\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1326\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1343,"href":"https:\/\/cedcapital.in\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1326\/revisions\/1343"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cedcapital.in\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1326"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cedcapital.in\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1326"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cedcapital.in\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1326"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}